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Брат Карамазов 20:18:23 20/07/2000:
Данное сообщение не означает моего возврата к форумской деятельности просто хочется напоследок заткнуть валенком пасти всем, кто шибко вопит о «вымирании русского народа». И в первую очередь, нашему дорогому президенту тов. Путину. Federal Statistical Office Press release July 19, 2000 Population in Germany will decline by more than 10 million from presently 82 million by 2050 Today, the Federal Statistical Office has released in Berlin the results of the 9th co-ordinated population projection until the year 2050. As envisaged by the above projection, the number of the population in Germany will decline. At the same time, the quantitative relation between older and younger people will change considerably. The above projection considers immigration from abroad based on the following two assumptions: On the one hand (variant 1), a long-term annual net immigration of about 100,000 persons and, on the other (variant 2), a net immigration of about 200,000 persons. - While today, Germany has about 82 million inhabitants, the number will within 50 years decline √ depending on the above assumptions to not more than 65 million (variant 1) to 70 million (variant 2). This assumption is based on the tendency observed in Germany over the last three decades that more people die than are born. This tendency will continue over the next five decades. Today, the number of persons who die is by 76,000 larger than the number of children who are born. In 2050, however, the number of persons who die will be larger by approximately 640,000 (variant 2) to 670,000 (variant 1). This will be largely the result of the low level of births in Germany. By the year 2050, the low level of births will have led to a situation where the younger age cohorts (approx. up to the 50th year of age) will generally show a smaller occupancy rate than the older age cohorts. At that time, persons aged 58 to 63 will belong to the age cohorts with the biggest occupancy rates. Today, it is the about 35 to 40-year-olds who belong to the latter cohorts. The 'old-age ratio' is computed to describe the associated changes in the age structure. It is defined as the ratio of the population at retirement age to the population at working age. If the borderline between the two groups is placed at an age of 60, today's ratio is 40 persons at retirement age (60 years and over) to 100 persons at working age (20 to 59 years). By 2050, this ratio will have shifted, i.e. approximately doubled to 80 (variant 1) or 75 (variant 2). If the borderline between the working and retirement ages were shifted from 60 to 65 years, the old-age ratio computed on that basis would jump from presently 25 persons (older than 64) to 52 (variant 2) to 56 persons (variant 1) and hence also double. The weight of the individual age groups will change considerably. Today, persons aged 60 and over constitute nearly one quarter of the population (23%). In 2050, every third person will belong to that age group (35.8%). In 1950, only every seventh person was at that age (14.6%). On the other hand, the share of young people is declining. While today, 21.3% of the population in Germany are younger than 20, the percentage will fall to 16.3% in 2050. In 1950, the group made up 30.4% of the population. With the population being almost equal in numbers in 1950 and 2050 (69 million and 70 million, respectively), the age distribution will become reversed within this century: While in 1950, the number of persons under 20 years of age was about twice as large as that of persons over 59 years, in 2050, the share of older persons will be more than twice as big as that of younger ones. The 9th co-ordinated population projection is based on the following detailed assumptions: - The birth rate in the former territory of the Federal Republic of Germany will remain at the currently low level of just below 1,400 children per 1,000 women. In the new LДnder the birth rate, which still is far lower, will certainly have approached the birth rate of the western part of Germany by 2005 and will remain at that level then. To maintain the level of population in the long term, however, the birth rate required would be 2,100 children per 1,000 women. A «stock-preserving rate» of that kind was achieved in Germany until the beginning of the 1970s. Like in the past few decades, life expectancy will continue to increase: By 2050, the expected increase in the average life expectancy (of a newborn child) in the former territory of the Federal Republic based on 1997 will amount to approximately four years. In detail, the life expectancy of boys will increase from 74.4 to 78.1 years and that of girls from 80.5 to 84.5 years. As regards the new LДnder where life expectancy is still slightly smaller, the latter is expected to increase more considerably to reach in the long term the same level as that observed in the western part of Germany. As for a 60-year-old man, an increase in his «further» life expectancy to 21.6 years (+2.7 years compared to the base value for the former territory of the Federal Republic) and for a woman of the same age an increase to 26.7 years (+3.5 years) are assumed. The above assumptions take for instance into consideration that today's life expectancy is considerably higher in other industrialised countries than in Germany. As far as external migration is concerned, two variants of net immigration have been considered. In variant 1, net immigration will accumulate to reach a volume of 5.8 million persons (about 100,000 annually) between 2000 and 2050. In variant 2, a total of 10.2 million persons (about 200,000 annually) will immigrate into the country. The largest part of them will be foreign population. Together with the current age structure, the above assumptions will determine the future demographic situation and age structure in Germany. Since the trends of the major influencing variables may be predicted to an ever smaller extent with increasing distance from the base date of 1 January 1998, such long-term calculations may only have a model character. For periods covering several decades, they are not projections as such, but reflect the implementation of the above assumptions. More results of the population projection may be obtained at a price of DM 8 from the Statistics Shop of the Federal Statistical Office as part of the data offered on the internet (http://www.statistik-bund.de). Detailed results will be released on a CD-ROM (order number: 8722030, DM 79), which will be issued presumably in late August this year. For further information please call: Mr. Hans-Peter Bosse, tel: (+49-611) 75-2358 or Ms. Bettina Sommer, tel: (+49-611) 75-2708.
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